Overview of the Loan portfolio – November 2022

The traditional yearly update on the loan portfolio is ready!

The overall picture is very positive as the risk is well below the forecast and the return still above expectations.

1. Average return on the whole portfolio

The portfolio continues to behave better than initially forecasted. The average return since the start of the platform is 6.3%.

It has slightly decreased from 6.5% as expected with the increasing weight of segment S in the portfolio.

We should anticipate a stabilization of the return as we have started to progressively increase the rates of the newly financed loans, especially for the longest durations.

2. Net profit

The accumulated profit has surpassed 1.5 million BGN.

The quality of the portfolio has further improved as the ratio “loss from debt sales” vs “Interest earned” is at 12%, a very low level, even lower than last year!

This is clear evidence that our model based on prime lending is solid and ready to face turbulent economical situations.

3. Investors by level of return

Most of the investors have a return between 5% and 8%.

4. Returns vs number of loans invested in (for investors not actively trading on the secondary market)

To consider if an investor is actively trading on the secondary market, we look at his purchases and sales on the secondary market, more precisely if he’s buying or selling at a discount/premium quite different from the recommended KIP. If the difference between the actual and recommended prices represents more than 10% of the earned interest, he is classified as actively trading on the secondary market.

Besides, we count only investors who have earned at least 1 BGN of interest.

Beyond a diversification level of 200 loans, the return is very stable oscillating slightly around 6%.

5. Return vs number of loans invested in (for investors actively trading on the secondary market)

Transacting on the secondary market offers opportunities to earn up to 10% but it is riskier. There is a higher volatility when transacting actively on the secondary market.

6. Time to sell

On average, since the beginning of the platform, an investor is able to sell more than 90% of his portfolio within 5 days.

These average numbers have not changed much compared to the last year. It is however important to mention that we have noticed more variations in these indicators in the last 2 years.

First, as explained in the article of last year, the time to sell increased drastically at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, before going back to the usual levels several months later.

Then, a similar pattern, though not as sharp as COVID’s one, is observed since a few months.

7. Risk levels by vintage of production 

Short-term indicator R2-6

It’s a short-term indicator to assess at an early stage the quality of a new vintage.

We look at loans financed having reached more than 30 days delay in the first 6 months of their life (among all loans from a vintage with at least 6 months of life)*.

The average value of 1.4% is the same as last year, indicating that the new loans originated in the last semester of 2021 and the first semester of 2022 are of average quality.

How to read it:

For example, among all the loans financed in the first semester of 2022, 221 had at least 6 months of history and among them 5 reached at least 30 days delay (equivalent to 2 installments in delay), which is 2.3%. For your information, these 5 loans are on time on the day this article is written.

1 Year risk indicator R3-12 

We look at loans having reached more than 60 days delay (equivalent to 3 installments in delay) in the first 12 months of their life, among all loans from a vintage with at least 12 months of life.

The loans financed in 2021 are of better quality than the average.

Conclusion

The risk indicators are excellent.

These 6 years of continuous great performance in credit risk management make us confident in the capacity of Klear to face the worsening of the economic environment and to keep delivering great returns to the investors.